How do you build a loss exceedance curve in X-Analytics?
You can build a loss exceedance curve directly in X-Analytics with the Loss Exceedance Analysis Agent. Choose the loss categories and severities to include. The Agent pulls the data from your loss tables, runs thousands of simulations, and returns an exceedance table and curve showing the annual probability of losing.
Bob Vescio, Chief Innovation Officer, walks through the Loss Exceedance Analysis Agent, from choosing loss categories to a shareable loss exceedance curve.
Key takeaways
- A loss exceedance curve shows the annual probability of losing a given amount or more from cyber events.
- The Loss Exceedance Analysis Agent builds the curve inside X-Analytics, using the loss tables in your profile.
- You choose which loss categories and severities to include before the analysis runs.
- The Agent combines incident probability and severity probability into a joint probability, then runs about ten thousand simulations to build the curve.
- The finished curve converts into a shareable artifact in one step.
What is a loss exceedance curve?
A loss exceedance curve shows the probability that annual losses from cyber events will meet or exceed a given dollar amount. Each point on the curve pairs a loss amount with the chance of losing that much or more in a year. Security and risk teams use it to show leadership the full range of potential losses, from frequent smaller events to rare, severe ones.
How do you start the Loss Exceedance Analysis Agent?
You can start in four steps:
- Go to AI Tools and type “loss” to filter the list.
- Select the Loss Exceedance Analysis Agent and click Start Analysis.
- Choose the loss categories to include.
- Choose the severities to include, such as median (50th percentile).
In the walkthrough, every loss category is included at median severity.
How does the Agent build the curve?
The Agent builds the curve in three stages, all inside X-Analytics:
- Pulls your data. It fetches the loss table data for your profile across the categories and severities you selected.
- Calculates joint probability. It converts each incident probability into a joint probability, combining the probability of the incident with the probability of the selected severity.
- Runs simulations. It runs about ten thousand simulations to build the exceedance table and draw the curve.
How do you read the exceedance table?
Each row pairs a loss amount with the annual probability of losing that amount or more. In the walkthrough:
| Loss amount | Annual probability of losing this amount or more |
|---|---|
| $25,000 | About 45.5% |
| $1,000,000 | About 14.9% |
The Agent then plots every row as your loss exceedance curve.
Why does the curve look uneven?
The shape reflects the categories you include. With several loss categories combined, the curve shows steps where each category contributes. Selecting a single loss category produces a smoother curve.
How do you share the curve?
When the analysis finishes, the Agent offers to convert the curve into a shareable artifact. Say yes, and you can save it to the Vault and share it with others in your organization.
Loss tables vs. loss exceedance curve
| Loss tables | Loss exceedance curve | |
|---|---|---|
| What it shows | Probability and loss range for each loss category | Annual probability of losing each amount or more, across the categories you choose |
| Best for | Looking up a specific category, severity, or scenario | Showing the full range of potential losses in one view |
| Output | Tables by category and severity | An exceedance table and curve, shareable as an artifact |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Loss Exceedance Analysis Agent?
It’s an Agent in X-Analytics that builds a loss exceedance curve from the loss tables in your profile, showing the annual probability of losing each amount or more.
Where does the data come from?
From the loss tables in your X-Analytics profile, filtered to the loss categories and severities you select.
How is the curve calculated?
The Agent converts each incident probability into a joint probability, combining incident and severity probability, then runs about ten thousand simulations to build the exceedance table and curve.
Can I build a curve for one loss category?
Yes. Select a single loss category at the start, and the result is a smoother curve for that category.
Can I share the curve?
Yes. Convert it to a shareable artifact when the analysis finishes, then save it to the Vault and share it across your organization.
Questions about loss exceedance analysis? Reach out to your X-Analytics customer success team at customersuccess@x-analytics.com.
Related
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The X-Analytics grids: now interactive and shareable
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Vault: save, annotate, and share your artifacts
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